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1.天津科技大学食品科学与工程学院 天津 300457
2. 天津科技大学轻工科学与工程学院 天津 300457
3. 新疆优产农业科技发展股份有限公司 和田 848300
Received:19 December 2025,
Revised:2026-01-08,
Accepted:03 February 2026,
Online First:27 April 2026,
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杜发隆,孙婉卿,李荣等.即食石榴籽粒货架期预测模型建立[J].制冷学报,
Du Falong,Sun Wanqing,Li Rong,et al.Development of Predictive Models for Shelf-Life of Ready-to-Eat Pomegranate Arils[J].Journal of Refrigeration,
杜发隆,孙婉卿,李荣等.即食石榴籽粒货架期预测模型建立[J].制冷学报, DOI:10.12465/issn.0253-4339.20251219001.
Du Falong,Sun Wanqing,Li Rong,et al.Development of Predictive Models for Shelf-Life of Ready-to-Eat Pomegranate Arils[J].Journal of Refrigeration, DOI:10.12465/issn.0253-4339.20251219001.
本文以即食石榴籽粒为研究对象,研究其在5、15、25、35 ℃下的品质变化规律,并采用品质衰变动力学方程对各指标进行了拟合,在此基础上结合Arrhenius方程建立了即食石榴籽粒的货架期预测模型。研究结果表明:花色苷含量对一级动力学模型具有较好的拟合度,拟合精度最高,因此选用花色苷含量为特征指标建立了货架期预测模型,该模型经验证,预测值与实际值的平均绝对误差在10%以内,预测的准确性较高,可有效预测石榴籽粒在5~35 ℃的货架期,为即食石榴籽粒流通和销售过程中的品质保持提供了理论支持和方法指导。
We investigated the quality changes of ready-to-eat pomegranate arils during storage at 5, 15, 25, and 35 ℃. The kinetic parameters of each quality index were fitted using quality degradation kinetic equations, and a shelf life prediction model was developed by integrating the fitting results with the Arrhenius equation. The results demonstrated that the anthocyanin content exhibited an optimal fit with the first-order kinetic model, exhibiting the highest fitting accuracy. A first-order kinetic model with anthocyanin content as the characteristic index was subsequently combined with the Arrhenius equation to construct a shelf-life prediction model. Validation experiments revealed that the mean absolute error between the predicted and actual values was less than 10%, confirming the high accuracy and reliability of the model. This model can effectively predict the shelf life of pomegranate arils over the temperature range of 5-35 ℃, providing theoretical support and methodological guidance for quality maintenance during the circulation and marketing of the product.
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